Caruba's Crystal Ball: 2012 Election Predictions

By Alan Caruba

It is time my friends to take my crystal ball out of its velvet-lined box, dust it off, and prognosticate. I have gazed deeply into its refracted light regarding the November 2012 elections and the Republican candidates. Here is what it tells me.

Texas Governor Rick Perry will be an August entry into the field of candidates and just blow everyone else out of the race. He has a hell of a track record in the Lone Star state where he became the first governor since WWII to reduce spending using a line item veto to scrub $3 billion from the budget. He has done many other things that conservatives just love and independent voters, shell-shot from Obama’s crazed assault on America, will support. He has never lost an election!

Gov. Mitt Romney is Mr. Flippity-Floppity; a political disaster waiting to happen. His poll rankings are due mostly to name recognition. John McCain beat him out for the nomination last time around and these two RINOs should taking up quilting or some hobby other than politics.

Rep. Michelle Bachman is the Tea Party flavor of the month, but will generate little fervor beyond the patriot legions. My crystal ball says America is not ready for a woman president and that includes Sarah Palin who, in case no one has noticed, is not running. If that makes me sexist, then so be it.

Gov. Tim Pawlenty is toast after the Iowa primaries which will tilt heavily toward Ms. Bachman because she was born there and because Iowans love mavericks. Pawlenty is just too “nice” at a time when voters want a candidate who exudes a more aggressive persona.

Rep. Rick Santorum or as we say around here, “Rick Who?” has no traction at all. He will be gone by Iowa and New Hampshire.

Herman Cain has personality to spare, but after four years of Obama, many voters are going to be wary of voting another Black American into the Oval Office. (I would vote for Rep. Allen West in a heartbeat.) Meanwhile, Cain will be offered the job of Secretary of Commerce in the Perry administration.

Rep. Ron Paul will be remembered as the Harold Stassen of this generation of voters. The original Stassen ran for the GOP nomination for president eight (8) times between 1946 and 1992! A Libertarian, Paul has a few good ideas and a lot of bad ones. On television he comes across as everyone’s angry grandpa.

Newt Gingrich, former Speaker of the House, was deserted by virtually his entire campaign staff weeks ago. He needs to officially retire from the race and go back to doing commentary for Fox News. Even Mike Huckabee had the good sense to stay put there.

Lastly, there’s some guy called Jon Huntsman who nobody has ever heard of except the immediate members of his family. He was Obama’s ambassador to China. No need to say anything more about Jon.

For those who actually think Obama will be reelected, relax. He’s already political road kill even though he will get the Democrat nomination.

Obama’s lost his mojo. Lots of people have someone like him in their family and, as often as not, they’re a crack addict, a mental case. The aura of the office and all its trappings will do nothing for this moron. He will do worse than George McGovern did in 1972 against Richard Nixon or Walter Mondale in 1984 against a former California Governor named Ronald Reagan.

And, yes, there are a lot of GOP candidates. By contrast the Communist Democratic People’s Party has only one.

© Alan Caruba, 2011

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Time to (Officially) Start Worrying About the Next Election

By Alan Caruba

It seems nuts even to a political junky like me, but I am already worrying about the November 2012 election now that Obama has made it official that he is running.

I think Obama can be easily defeated for all manner of reasons that include the way he has begun to lose his liberal Democrat base thanks to the Libyan non-war and the more general electorate thanks to Obamacare, the bailouts, a soaring national debt, unemployment, and gas prices.

What does bother me is what appears to be a fairly lackluster group of expected GOP candidates for the presidency currently gearing up to announce their candidacies. They are not generating a lot of enthusiasm at this point, but there is a lot of time for one of them to catch fire if they make a real case for themselves and against Obama.

Many people are understandably focused on present economic fears and November 2012 seems a long way off. There’s an unrealistic disappointment in the performance of the new batch of Republicans in Congress. Members supported by the Tea Party have barely been in office, but some are beginning to assert themselves.

Within the Republican leadership, there seems to be the view that they need only let Obama and the Democrats hang themselves as the national debt and deficit continues to skyrocket, along with inflation, rising gas prices, and a lingering high unemployment rate.

Republicans are understandably reluctant to be blamed for shutting down the government if they cannot get the White House and Democrats to agree to more realistic budget cuts. The Democrat strategy is to brand them as “extremists” in a shutdown. The mainstream media will reflect this. Some 25-30% of liberals will accept this, but that still leaves a majority of Americans who will not.

The fact remains, even with a Republican majority in the House, the majority Democratic Senate is a major roadblock to solving the financial problems of the nation and the White House can still wield a veto. However, keeping the government going with continuing resolutions based on cutting a few billion from a $14 trillion dollar debt is beginning to look lame.

It is, however, the presumptive Republican candidates that are my concern at this point and, it will surprise those who have read my criticisms of him, but I think Mitt Romney may emerge is the leader of the pack.

The surprise for many who hear him is that Mitt Romney is a dynamic throwback to Ronald Reagan, espousing the same values. When he addresses Republican audiences these days, he makes a lot of sense, particularly when he dissects Barack Obama and when he discusses the role of business in American life. He does so without Tele Prompters and with real passion. If America can elect a black President, they can elect a Mormon. I can remember when fears were expressed about JFK’s Catholicism.

Forget about Newt Gingrich. Too much baggage from his personal life and an opposition research file on him a foot thick means he is not a viable candidate against the likes of Obama.

Former Gov. Tim Pawlenty strikes me as a nice fellow who says the right things, but few know who he is and those that do can’t figure out why he wants to be President or should be. Too much of what he says comes out sounding bland. The same can be said of Gov. Mitch Daniels. Both are good men, but neither offers a compelling reason to pay them much attention.

Haley Barbour has a ton of political expertise and a good record as Mississippi Governor, but the problem is that he is from Mississippi. He’s “too southern” and, in a presidential campaign, his opposition would show up at every rally waving the Confederate flag and so would some of his supporters!

Then there are what I call the weird candidates, Sarah Palin, Mike Huckabee, and Donald Trump, none of whom have come out and said they are running for the nomination. Palin excites the far right because the woman is never boring. That, however, is not a criterion for running the country. Former Gov. Huckabee is making a ton of money with his popular Fox Channel and likely knows he’s better off there.

Donald Trump has been playing the media and getting tons of exposure by hinting he might run. He is a combination of real estate mogul, television star, and a celebrity who agreed to be roasted on the Comedy Channel. He’s smart enough to know that being president would be a demotion and cut in pay. He wouldn’t be able to tell Congress “You’re fired!”

Rep. Michele Bachmann, a Tea Party favorite, is a smarter version of Palin. Both Paul Ryan and Marco Rubio, serious minded Congressmen, are too young and too smart to get into the race at this time. Forget about Herman Cain, a pizza magnate; a good man for sure, but not now, probably not ever.

These candidates, individually and in aggregate, probably account for the reason why the name of New Jersey Governor Chris Christie keeps coming up despite his denial that he will run at this time. If the GOP convention were a Hollywood movie, one could see it turn to Christie after a deadlock and draft him to run, but it isn’t and that is not going to happen.

Ronald Reagan had been Governor of California for two terms. He gained political credits when he ran against then President Jerry Ford for the nomination and, after four years of Jimmy Carter, he looked very good. Even the Bush’s, father and son, had the political credentials to run and win, though we need to recall what a squeaker that first George W. election was when we came within a hair’s breath of having loony Al Gore in the Oval Office.

Whoever is chosen to carry the party’s banner had better be willing to tear into Obama and the Democrats because, if he bores us to death, Obama will destroy the nation in a second term.

© Alan Caruba, 2011

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Caruba's Crystal Ball: The 2012 GOP Presidential Nominee

By Alan Caruba

If the Republican Party nominates a RINO (Republican in Name Only) like John McCain in 2012 it will lose and, assuming the Democratic Party clings to its suicide pact with Barack Hussein Obama, he will win.

It is doubtful that Obama will not be re-nominated for the 2012 race. As the Wall Street Journal’s Kimberley A. Strassel pointed out, “History doesn’t inspire optimism. Over the past 100 years, every time a president two years into his first term lost Congress, he went on to be re-elected: Truman in ’48, Eisenhower in ’56, Clinton in ’96.”

What we do know is that independent voters will decide whoever will be elected in 2012. There were no Tea Parties in those earlier elections and a lot depends on what the GOP does over the course of the next two years. While they control the House, they have limited options beyond a declared intention to repeal Obamacare, cut government spending, etc. Twenty-three very nervous Democrat Senators up for election in 2012 may prove cooperative. Obama will not.

So, let the speculation begin! Rasmussen Reports polled likely primary voters to find out who Republicans favored at this early point and released a November 4 announcement that three ex-governors, Mitt Romney of Massachusetts, Mike Huckabee of Arkansas, and Sarah Palin were in a dead heat.

My crystal ball says that none of these politicians will be on the ticket.

Romney is a RINO who brought an early version of Obamacare to Massachusetts when he was governor. Huckabee plays well on television and should stay there. Palin has a cult following, but is a political anomaly who could be defeated in a general election.

Many Republican women candidates did not fare well in the midterms. None of these early potential candidates should be considered serious contenders for the presidency at a time when many Republicans are looking for new faces, not failed earlier contenders.

Others to ignore in this category include Governors Bobby Jindal and Haley Barbour, as well as Tim Pawlenty. All are good governors, but none have the star power it takes to be president.

There are Republicans who are already making appearances in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and other early primary states and, of these, Mike Pence, an Indiana Representative who won a recent presidential straw vote at a “values summit” in September looks like a viable contender. There’s some buzz for John Thune, a handsome Senator from South Dakota, but Thune has not geared up for the campaign and few voters know anything about him.

Marco Rubio, the newly elected Senator from Florida, is a bright young, articulate face of the new GOP, but he needs to get a full term under his belt before running. He needs his name on some piece of legislation that gains attention. He is, for sure, a rising star.

Newt Gingrich may want to be president, but he is likely to conclude that being the party’s “elder statesman” is the role in which he is most comfortable. I do not think he will run for the nomination. For all his virtues, Gingrich is no Ronald Reagan.

The 2010 midterm elections were unique in that they were all about rejecting Obama’s actions in his first two years and the growing suspicion that he is a few cards short of a full deck. He can be depended upon to pursue the same policies that led to his rejection.

It is worth noting the way even some Republicans in Congress who had been there a long time got swept from office and the way some people with no political resume were elected. A “wave” election, the midterms were also in many ways an anomaly or, as Wall Street would call it, a correction.

My crystal ball tells me that the Republican Party could likely embrace Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey.

A lot depends on whether Christie will campaign for the presidency and he seems determined to serve out his first time. In two years he will look even better having already demonstrated that his endorsement is golden and he is a great campaigner whom audiences love. One day after the midterm elections, the respected political pundit, Stuart Rothenberg, addressed a group of D.C. insiders His pick? Gov. Chris Christie.

Gov. Christie says he wants to stay in New Jersey to address its need to reduce its burden of debt and shake loose the civil service union’s grip, but few serious politicians can or would ignore their party’s call to run for the presidency. Gov. Christie has enormous personal appeal on many levels and just the right values for a large segment of independent voters who have demonstrated they want to “clean house” in D.C.

One mistake the Republican Party must not make is the expectation that it can “co-op” the Tea Party. The GOP needs to cooperate and be responsive to it. It’s not a third party. It is a movement.

While potential candidates begin to maneuver for a shot to be the Republican Party choice, I think the time for the familiar faces has passed and the demand for real change based on rediscovered conservative values favors a new face.

© Alan Caruba, 2010

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