The Tories' wobble in the polls shows that David Cameron needs to be respected as well as liked, argues Janet Daley.
Why aren't the Conservatives more popular with voters? After a succession of polls showed them bumping along below the magic 40 per cent rating, ours today has them just there, with an unremarkable lead over Labour of 11 points. And Labour has actually gained ground since last month. So why aren't the Tories doing better? What can be done to prevent this becoming one of the abiding mysteries of modern political history: how did the Opposition fail to trounce, definitively and unambiguously, the worst Government in living memory?
Whether or not they admit it, the party leadership is worried by the prospect of an election that might be only barely won – or worse. Prospective candidates, even in seats which should be easily gained under present circumstances, confide to me their terror of a hung parliament and a Lib-Lab pact resulting in a proportional representation Bill being pushed through Parliament.
Goodness knows, we are not short of theories for why this should be so: too much "middle-ground" or too little? Too few policies or not enough clear principle? And the latest rendition: too much austerity in the message and not enough "sunshine"? Oh dear. The exhausting amount of critical exegesis that has been expended on Mr Cameron's every tactical move and rhetorical innovation is, in fact, very reminiscent of the careful study devoted to the man on whom he was once said to have modelled himself. Tony Blair's every pronouncement was submitted to just this kind of textual and strategic analysis – and the similarity is no coincidence.This is typical as far as I can see of the Westminster village mode of thinking, they look at polls and they analyse, they then try to extrapolate from the results what the majority of people are thinking and then colour it to terms they understand. Heir to Blair? well that's partially it, but they haven't followed it through to see what it was about Blair that makes him so reviled in some voters eyes. It's not about rebranding and it's not about austerity, most voters know we're going through hard times and that cuts, perhaps even savage cuts are going to be needed before the countries finances move back into recovery. We aren't stupid after all, everyone knows that if you max out your credit the evil day comes when you have to pay it back. The article points out that he's likeable, but not respected, partially true, but again not the whole reason as they don't go into areas where the lack of respect resides. It's about trust.
One of the things that the Westminster bubble misses is the revulsion the average voter feels about the EU, they'll point out that when it comes to polls that the EU does not figure too highly in peoples views on what's wrong with the country. They point to crime, immigration, education etc all high on an average voters worry list and yes they are but this is a matter of trust, not policy, yes the Tories might well do better (they could hardly do worse) on crime, education or immigration, even the economy will probably be better in their hands, but that isn't where trust comes into it, what it boils down too is how do we trust a man who will not represent our views on something which does have a direct effect on immigration, crime, the economy and who effectively run this country despite all the pretensions of control our current crop of politicians try to maintain.
The BBC ran a poll that suggested that 88% of the British public want a referendum on the EU's Lisbon Treaty and what did we get? Labour and the Lib Dems reneged on the spot and the Tories dropped it after it was ratified. So the politicians might think that polls suggest the EU is low in peoples priorities, yet it does produce strong feelings and one of those feelings is that politicians can't be trusted.
We learned to our cost that Blair could not be trusted, that Gordon brown can't be trusted, that Nick Clegg can't be trusted and towards the end we learned that David Cameron can't be trusted. We can't trust them to keep their promises and we don't trust them to represent our views. That's why Cameron can't seal the deal, we don't trust him, we've seen nothing to engender trust, being a nice guy isn't enough, nor is it about respect, I don't respect people who break cast iron promises without coming up with an alternative suitable to the awful situation we're in vis the EU.
You want trust Mr Cameron? You want respect? Give us our say on the EU, you might not like what you get, but by God you'll have earned both and sealed the deal.
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